🇩🇪 Surveys in the Arab World on the Gaza War: Germany Losing Substantial Reputation

Last Updated on July 20, 2024

The war against Gaza has dominated the daily lives of people in the Middle East and the Islamic world for the past 100 days. At the beginning of the year, numerous surveys were conducted reflecting the views of the population in the affected regions, as well as in Israel and the United States—the two main actors in the war against Gaza. Whether in Israel, Palestine, the Arab Gulf states, or the entire Arab-Muslim world, governments, think tanks, insurers, global companies, and, not least, the media seek to understand what people think about the war and its resulting consequences. A clear trend is emerging in the Arab world, with a noticeable decline in approval and trust in the United States and its partners in the EU or NATO, while the reputation of China, Iran, and Russia has risen. By Karin Leukefeld, Damascus.

Israel
In a recently published survey in Israel, the main question was whether the state would win or lose the war against Gaza. According to the survey conducted by the “Lazar” polling institute on behalf of the Maariv newspaper on January 10-11, 2024, 30 percent answered “No” to the question of whether Israel could win the war against Gaza after 100 days of conflict. Only 9 percent believed that Israel would achieve something and win the war. 53 percent believed that Israel had “not yet” won the war, and 8 percent responded with “I don’t know.”

Government supporters were more optimistic than opposition supporters. 14 percent of government supporters were convinced that Israel would win the war, while 53 percent believed that Israel was on the path to victory. However, 24 percent believed that the loss for Israel would be significant. Among opposition supporters, only 2 percent believed that Israel would win the war. 60 percent thought Israel was on the path to victory, while 31 percent were convinced that a significant loss would occur.

A survey from the end of 2023 had revealed that a majority of Israelis had lost confidence in the Netanyahu government. 69 percent of respondents had expressed support for immediate elections, but only after the Gaza war was concluded.

USA
A survey conducted by the American Gallup Institute reveals a divided society regarding the Gaza conflict and the role of the United States in it. Overall, there is limited criticism of U.S. involvement.

Only four out of ten respondents believed that the U.S. administration was doing the right thing to resolve the conflict. When asked if the U.S. was doing enough (for Israel), 41 percent stated that the U.S. was providing sufficient support, 39 percent considered the U.S. support to be inadequate, while 19 percent believed the support for Israel was “more than necessary.” Republicans and Democrats were equally divided, with 40 percent agreeing that the U.S. was “not doing enough” to resolve the conflict. Among Democrats, 48 percent believed that U.S. intervention was correct, while only 33 percent of Republicans shared this view. Thirty-eight percent of respondents thought that Israel was receiving the right amount of support, 36 percent believed too much support was given, and 24 percent felt the support was insufficient.

Regarding the U.S. administration’s support for the Palestinians, 33 percent believed it was inadequate, 33 percent considered it appropriate, and 31 percent thought the U.S. was supporting the Palestinians too much.

Opinions on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu varied significantly. While 55 percent of Republicans supported him, independents showed 30 percent support, and Democrats only 14 percent.

Arab World
The Arab perception in connection with Israel’s war against Gaza demonstrates a significant shift, particularly towards previous allies in the West. Respondents expressed substantial sympathy for states actively advocating for the interests and goals of Palestinians, while distancing themselves from those actively supporting Israel.

According to the Arab Barometer regularly conducted in Tunisia, there was a noticeable change in opinion by mid-December 2023, following the October 7, 2023 attack by the Qassam Brigades on Israel. Support for the USA and a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine rapidly declined, while support for Iran and militant resistance significantly increased.

Prior to October 7, 56 percent of Tunisians wished for close economic relations with the USA, but just three weeks later, this percentage had dropped to 34 percent. Before October 7, US President Joe Biden had a 29 percent approval rating, which plummeted to just 6 percent after the start of the Israeli war against Gaza and Biden’s statement that there were “no conditions” for US support for Israel.

Views on China also underwent a transformation. Before October 7, only about one-third of Tunisians preferred China’s policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over that of the USA. After October 7, 50 percent of respondents found Chinese policy more favorable, compared to only 14 percent who said the same for US policy. A similar shift was observed in responses to the question of who pursued better policies for regional security. Prior to October 7, 31 percent of Tunisians favored Chinese policy, increasing to 50 percent after October 7. The percentage of those preferring US policy for regional security decreased from 19 percent (before October 7) to 12 percent.

While the survey did not specifically inquire about Iran’s policy, it did inquire about the foreign policy of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Following Khamenei’s October 19, 2023 call for an end to the bombardment of the Gaza Strip and accusing Israel of “genocide,” approval ratings for Iranian foreign policy among Tunisians rose from 29 percent to 41 percent.

The war against Gaza has significantly diminished support for the long-standing U.S.-driven policy of “normalization” between Arab states and Israel in Tunisia. Prior to October 7, only 12 percent believed in attempting to normalize relations with Israel. By the end of October, approval ratings for normalization had dropped to less than one percent.

On January 10, 2024, the Arab Center for Research and Political Studies based in Doha, Qatar, released the results of another survey on the Gaza war. In 16 Arab countries, 8,000 men and women were surveyed. The findings revealed that 97 percent of respondents felt psychologically burdened by the war against Gaza. Eighty percent reported regularly following news about the conflict, while 7 percent did not follow any news. Fifty-four percent relied on television, and 43 percent used the internet for information.

Regarding the Qassam Brigades’ military attack on October 7, 35 percent stated that the operation was a result of Israel’s ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories. Twenty-four percent believed the operation aimed to defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque against Israeli attacks, while 8 percent thought October 7 was a response to the ongoing siege of the Gaza Strip. When asked about the characterization of the Qassam Brigades’ military operation, 67 percent considered it a “legitimate resistance operation.” Nineteen percent deemed it “flawed” but legitimate, 3 percent said it was a legitimate resistance operation involving terrible criminal acts, and 5 percent labeled the operation as illegitimate.

A majority (without percentage details) considered comparing Hamas to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) as incorrect.

Regarding attitudes toward regional and international actors in Israel’s war against Gaza, there was an overwhelming 94 percent rejection of the U.S. position, with 82 percent describing the U.S. stance as “very poor.” Similar negative assessments were made for France (79 percent rejection), the UK (78 percent rejection), and Germany (75 percent rejection). Views on Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China’s positions balanced in the 40-percent range between approval and rejection.

76 percent stated that their disapproval towards the United States has significantly increased since the beginning of the Gaza War. 81 percent said they found the U.S. statements regarding a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders to be unbelievable.

The survey also examined opinions towards Palestinians in the Arab states. In this regard, 92 percent believed that the rights of Palestinians concern all Arabs, not just Palestinians. This perspective increased in Morocco from 59 percent (in 2022) to 95 percent, in Egypt from 75 percent (2022) to 94 percent, in Sudan from 68 percent (2022) to 91 percent, and in Saudi Arabia from 69 percent (2022) to 95 percent.

The survey took place between December 12, 2023, and January 12, 2024, in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Israeli-occupied Palestinian West Bank, including Jerusalem.

A Voice from Gaza

In Gaza itself, where more than 85 percent of the population has been displaced since the start of the Israeli bombardment, struggling to survive under inhumane conditions, few people were likely surveyed. As a representative, an unnamed German-speaking father known to the author, who has been wandering from place to place since the beginning of the war, is quoted. Through his mobile phone, which can rarely be charged, he sent the following message to friends for the new year:

“Dear friends,

We now have nearly 100 days of war behind us. Every second counts, and at any moment, we could be injured or killed. The Israeli weapons are doing a very good job and are very eager to kill as many of us as they can. That is a stark reality.

The level of destruction is indescribable. All wars since 2008/2009 have been a game compared to today’s war. Although we continue to live and breathe, BUT we are very, very, very tired, exhausted, and fatigued. My, our children are the ones I feel the most sorry for. (And not only them but all children in the world).

This path is 100 percent the wrong path. Because peace can and will NEVER emerge in this way. The opposite is the result. Do the world leaders not know this??!!

Well, I am not a politician to judge that. But I regret so much that they have been watching our misery without taking action for so long. The attacks on the Gaza Strip continue as I write these lines to you. This means more deaths, injuries, and even more destruction.”

By Karin Leukefeld