🇾🇪 The US Coalition in the Red Sea is Crumbling – Berlin remains Silent

Last Updated on July 20, 2024

According to the US vision, it is definitely not in the Red Sea – the highly publicized coalition meant to respond to the attacks by the Yemeni Houthi is falling apart. Something is happening there that is not visible. It’s time to gather a few theories.

By Dagmar Henn

Developments around the Red Sea are becoming increasingly interesting. The Danish shipping company Maersk has announced that it will resume the route through the Suez Canal. The US-operated alliance under the romantic name “Prosperity Guardian” is proving to be more and more stillborn, despite (or because of) intensive US efforts to directly involve Iran in a confrontation. And the German government, which usually can’t say “here” fast enough when involvement in any US actions is sought, yes, the one that now wants to consider itself responsible even in the Chinese Sea, is strangely quiet and hasn’t even appeared on the list of Prosperity Guardian. The latest message from the Foreign Office was, “We are examining.”

What is more peculiar than most Germans might be aware of is that maritime traffic is a complex matter because it has been decades since the flag under which a ship sails said anything about its owner. Therefore, most Germans are not aware that half of the world’s largest container ship class is in German ownership. Because this information is usually well hidden – only the shipping companies that lease the ships are visible, while the owners hide behind corporations, which are often distributed across several countries.

How difficult this can be was demonstrated in the case of the tanker Chem Pluto, which was recently hit by a drone off the coast of India. In Western reporting, it was only explained that it belonged to a Japanese company, and the US accused Iran of launching the drone that allegedly hit it. The Houthi, on the other hand, have stated loudly and clearly that they intend to attack Israeli ships. Moscow-based journalist John Helmer solved the puzzle on his blog: behind a Japanese and a Sinhalese holding and a Dutch management, hides the Israeli oligarch Idan Ofer. Incidentally, he also owns 33 percent of Atlético Madrid.

The German part of the large container class is equally concealed. However, the Suez Canal is an important route for these ships. And precisely the Hamburg magnates, the millionaire and billionaire friends of Hamburg’s Olaf Scholz, have invested a significant amount of money in this industry; one should therefore assume that the Chancellor is vigorously advocating for the freedom of the seas. After all, the German military was in the vicinity until April 2022, with precisely this background. Now it’s not Somali pirates, but Yemeni drones that pose a problem for this route, yet there is no sound coming from Germany.

This coincides with the somewhat peculiar announcement from Maersk, which can hardly be attributed to the presence of US ships in this area. After all, the driving force behind all the diversions of cargo ships is not so much the specific threat posed by drones, but rather the implied threat in the form of more expensive insurance. The insurance premiums are not getting cheaper solely because more warships are now in the area (the Chinese contingent, meanwhile, is peacefully stationed at the base in Djibouti). On the contrary, the more tense the situation, the higher the risk that flying objects could damage the ships, and the insurance doesn’t care whether the damaging objects are of Yemeni or US origin.

At this point, Helmer has an interesting theory. He assumes that France and Spain, like Russia before them, have struck a deal with the Houthi and have therefore withdrawn from the watchdog role. The ships could cross the Red Sea unhindered if they remove Israel from their routes.

Concerning the Israeli port of Eilat, it has already been reported that revenues there have decreased by 80 percent. Eilat is primarily used for the import of vehicles. There are no corresponding figures from the admittedly larger ports in the Mediterranean yet, but if this assumption is correct, a change should soon become apparent there as well.

This theory could naturally also provide an explanation for the German silence. Even though, since Nord Stream, one is no longer accustomed to the German government not being led by the leash of US interests, it cannot be denied that this time, expectation and result are very far apart. Surprisingly, in this case, Berlin would, despite loudly proclaiming a willingness to cover up any Israeli crime, contribute in a very quiet and invisible way to undermining the economic foundations of Israeli genocide. Because if the assumption is indeed true that even the Germans would prefer to secure passage with a creeping boycott of Israeli ports rather than entrust themselves to the cowboys, the Houthi action would prove to be an extremely effective method.

As mentioned, the announcement by Maersk has a certain aftertaste. Additionally, there is the significant fact that, except for Bahrain, no other state from the region was involved or wanted to be involved from the beginning with the US guardians of prosperity. Implicit support for the Houthi blockade would even counteract the impression of Arab inaction. Economically speaking, what is happening in the Red Sea is a maximum of military efficiency – through the use of drones, each costing a few thousand euros, billions worth are redirected, or, if the above theory is true, an economic blockade against the will of the USA is imposed, which could be very painful for Israel (which already faces economic difficulties due to the mobilization of so many reservists). Incidentally, such a solution would certainly also have the approval of Egypt, which would only have to sacrifice a portion of the revenue from the Suez Canal in this way.

One doesn’t have to go as far as Pepe Escobar, who recently stated that, in his opinion, the actions of the Houthi were coordinated within BRICS. But why assume that only the USA thinks in more complex maneuvers (which they visibly fail at), and that more intelligent planners than the US Neocons wouldn’t also come up with some thoughts?

The charm of this idea lies, among other things, in the fact that a part of the sanctions against Russia was the sanctioning of oil, which had its effect mainly through insurances; in other words, the transportation of Russian oil suddenly required the creation of new insurance structures because Western insurances refused to insure the tankers, no matter where they were headed… Is it inconceivable that a discreet, well-disguised reprisal is happening here, which incidentally also helps extinguish the next fire triggered by the descending hegemon? And yes, the effects on oligarchs like Ofer, which should not be absent, are reminiscent of the fantasies associated with sanctions in the West.

Helmer also expresses another interesting thought in connection with the Iranian warning that they could also block the Mediterranean. Because Iran is quite a distance from Gibraltar. In this context, he recalls Algeria, much closer to Gibraltar than Iran, which had declared at the beginning of the Israeli invasion that it was ready for military actions. From a technical perspective, the Mediterranean is the alternative route towards Israeli ports if the Suez Canal fails. A blockade of this route would not be entirely impossible.

Now, one could add the Russian flight that Bernhard von Moon of Alabama (among others) reported, landing in Washington on December 20 and taking off again only after 54 hours. Even though the New York Times published this peculiar story the next day, claiming Russia was negotiating a freeze of the Ukraine conflict (something Russia has no interest in, so it can be confidently dismissed as a fairy tale) – perhaps the conversation was about something entirely different. What if it was about informing the US government that there are means other than UN resolutions to enforce an end to Israeli violence, and that the United States simply could do nothing about it?

Enough speculation. The truth will, as always in such cases, become apparent over time. But one must not forget that there are other actors besides Blinken, Nuland, and company, and they are much wiser. Just a glance at the map reveals how strategically advantageous Yemen’s location is. Letting thoughts revolve around it in all directions may lead to confusion, but it certainly keeps thinking flexible.